What Happens When the Census Population Figure Does Not Match the Estimates?
Population & Societies › Num. 411, Avril 2005
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Résumé
Censuses can produce unexpected results. François Héran and Laurent Toulemon review surprises in French censuses from 1968 to 2004. They examine the adjustments made by the National Institute for Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE), compare them with practice in the United Kingdom, and assess their effects on demographic indicators. They also explain how INSEE has made upward adjustments to net migration figures for recent years.
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Extrait
What Happens When the Census Population Figure Does Not Match the Estimates?
Every year INSEE publishes the population balance for the previous year. It rolls forward data from the last census by adding the natural increase (surplus of births over deaths) and net migration (surplus of arrivals over departures). The sum of the two - or total balance - gives the annual population change. This operation is repeated every year until the next census. When the census gives a different population figure from the current estimate (a situation called "error of closure" by the US demographers), consistency must be restored to the enumeration...
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